ABI Research: Femtocells werden 2010 UMA Konvergenzlösungen überholen

ABI Research hat die Erfolgsaussichten der FMC Technologien Unlimited Licensed Access (UMA) und Femtocells miteinander verglichen und kommt zum Ergebnis, daß letztere ab 2010 die Oberhand gewinnen werden.

Derzeit sei das Wachstum der auf UMA basierende Dual Mode Lösungen noch sehr hoch, insbesondere durch den Wettbewerb von France Telecom, BT und anderen. Auch T-Mobile USA führt derzeit einen solchen Dienst ein. Doch arbeiten andere Carrier intensiv an Femtocell Lösungen, da diese keine besonderen Endgeräte benötigen. Vorangetrieben werde diese Entwicklung vor allem durch die Netzbetreiber Vodafone, SFR, Softbank und Sprint.

Zu beachten ist, daß ABI Research eine weltweite Betrachtung anstellt. Schaut man jedoch auf den deutschen Markt, so stellt man fest, daß hier keine der beiden Technologien im Einsatz ist:
  • Die verfügbaren Dual Mode Produkte unterstützen kein UMA
  • Campuslösungen mit Femtocells sind derzeit mangels nutzbarer eigener Frequenzen nicht zulässig

ABI Research Pressemitteilung:

Mobile operators are now making key and far-ranging decisions about the future of their consumer fixed-mobile convergence services. While enterprise FMC services are  clearly following the route of VCC- and SIP-enabled solutions, consumer FMC services will take one of two major paths, based on each mobile operator’s view of the market, and the nature of its existing network assets.
 
According to ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis, “Today, consumer FMC services that are based on Wi-Fi use UMA to manage the connection choice and handover between Wi-Fi and cellular networks. These services are ramping up quickly in Europe, due to intense competition between Orange, BT, and other mobile operators. In North America, T-Mobile USA is about to go nationwide with its UMA-based FMC service as well.”
 
“However,” adds research director Stuart Carlaw, “mobile operators such as Vodafone, SFR, Softbank, and Sprint are at the leading edge among carriers exploring femtocell technologies. With their ability to work with any handset, and their potential for encouraging high data use, femtocellsare very attractive when compared to VCC and UMA-based Wi-Fi services.”
 
The chart below illustrates how femtocells and dual-mode services will evolve in terms of subscriber numbers over time.
umavsfemtocell

 
Although there are technical advantages and disadvantages associated with dual-mode and femtocell approaches, an equally important consideration will be the shape of an operator’s overall business. For T-Mobile and Orange it makes sense for them to leverage current public Wi-Fi network investments by adopting a dual-mode approach; but other carriers will see femtocells as an opportunity to differentiate themselves in highly competitive markets.
 
Fixed-mobile convergence, voice over Wi-Fi and femtocells are explored in depth in three recent ABI Research studies,
Fixed-Mobile Convergence,  Voice over Wi-Fi Handsets and Femtocell Access Points.
 
These reports form part of two ABI Research subscription Research Services:
Fixed-Mobile Convergence, and  Femtocells.
 
Founded in 1990 and headquartered in New York, ABI Research maintains global operations supporting annual research programs, intelligence services and market reports in broadband and multimedia, RFID & contactless, M2M, wireless connectivity, mobile wireless, transportation, and emerging technologies.  For information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.
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